Give the market a week to panic about chip valuations, and it'll spend the next one buying the dip right back.
That's more or less what happened Monday: the same semiconductor names that got hammered last week came roaring back, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 53,000 for the first time in its history, and Microsoft still can't catch a break no matter how much it cuts.
If you stepped away for the long weekend, here's what you missed on the way back in.
The Rundown
- Chip and memory stocks broadly rebounded after last week's steep selloff, helping the blue-chip index close above a fresh milestone for the first time in its history.
- A major cloud and software giant announced another round of job cuts, doing little to ease investor worries that generative AI is eating into its core business.
- Analyst upgrades and a surprise presidential product endorsement lifted a handful of individual tech and hardware names.
- A leading bitcoin miner signed a multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure lease even as a major corporate bitcoin holder trimmed its stack, while auto-parts retailers sold off sharply and electric-vehicle makers rallied.
The Chip Trade Gets Its Confidence Back
Monday was a collective exhale for semiconductors.
Memory maker MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC (MU | ???0.94%) had shed roughly 15% over the prior week, an ugly pullback that followed a genuinely stellar twelve months, and it only managed a modest gain on the rebound day.
The rest of the group had more to say: WESTERN DIGITAL CORP (WDC | ???7.14%), NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV (NXPI | ???2.62%), MARVELL TECHNOLOGY INC (MRVL | ???1.62%) and MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC (MCHP | ???3.49%) all posted gains between roughly 3% and 7%, while NVIDIA CORP (NVDA | ???0.37%) edged higher too.
I read last week's selloff as a legitimate question finally getting asked out loud: is the AI buildout generating enough return to justify the capital going into it, or has the enthusiasm simply outrun the math? Monday's bounce doesn't answer that question. It just says the market isn't ready to answer it in the negative yet.
The real tell will be how the hyperscalers' own spending plans hold up.
AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN | ???0.61%), MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT | ???0.96%) and ALPHABET INC-CL A (GOOGL | ???1.82%) are the names to watch here, and if their capital budgets stay intact, that should reassure investors that AI infrastructure demand has real staying power.
If the hyperscalers get cautious instead, expect the conversation to snap right back to valuations, financing needs, and concentration risk in the chip trade.
Microsoft's Bad Year Gets a Little Worse
Close-up of an Xbox Series console and controller with dynamic lighting, showcasing modern gaming technology - Pexels.com
MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT | ???0.96%) confirmed roughly 6,400 job cuts, about 2% of its workforce, with the Xbox gaming division taking an outsized share of the reduction. The stock is down 19% year-to-date, which makes it the worst performer among the mega-cap tech names in 2026, and Monday's announcement did nothing to change that trajectory: shares slipped another 0.96% on the news.
The problem isn't the layoffs themselves. It's what they signal.
Investors are increasingly worried that generative AI is eating into demand for classic enterprise software at the same time Microsoft's own AI products haven't managed to convince anyone they're the clear winner. Cutting headcount reads less like discipline and more like an admission that growth isn't where it needs to be.
The Dow Crosses 53,000, Even If the Rest of the Week Looks Complicated
A simple blue directional traffic sign with white arrow over a white wall background, symbolizing direction or movement - Pexels.com
The headline number is clean: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI | ???0.29%) closed at 53,055.91, its first finish above 53,000 ever, while the S&P 500 (SPX | ???0.72%) and Nasdaq Composite (COMPX | ???1.12%) both rallied harder as tech led the way.
Some of that tech optimism had a real catalyst behind it: Taiwan's Foxconn, the world's largest electronics contract manufacturer, reported a 40% jump in second-quarter revenue, which the market read as fresh evidence that AI-driven demand hasn't cooled off. That optimism gets tested fast. Samsung reports preliminary second-quarter results Tuesday, with analysts expecting profit to jump roughly eighteenfold year-over-year, and SK Hynix follows later in the week with an ADR listing aiming to raise upward of $28 billion.
Wednesday brings the minutes from the Federal Reserve's first meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh, and I expect investors to comb through them for anything resembling forward guidance. CME FedWatch data still shows a majority leaning toward a possible rate move as early as September, so the minutes matter more than usual this cycle.
Domestic data gave a mixed read heading into that meeting: S&P Global's services survey showed growth picking up, while ISM's version showed a slight pullback, which tells me the service economy is muddling through rather than accelerating cleanly in either direction.
Elsewhere, oil barely moved after OPEC+ agreed Sunday to raise output for a fifth consecutive month, an increase of roughly 188,000 barrels a day starting in August, as what looked like a supply shock earlier this year now threatens to become a glut. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed following the U.S.-Iran talks, though insurance premiums on that route remain well above pre-war levels. The euro ticked up against the dollar to 1.1440, and the 10-year Treasury yield barely budged at 4.47%.
Upgrades and an Unusual Endorsement
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES (AMD | ???6.61%) had the best day in the group after Goldman Sachs raised its price target and reiterated a buy rating, betting on a strong quarterly report and guidance with no clear end in sight to AI-driven chip demand.
ASML HOLDING NV-NY REG SHS (ASML | ???3.15%) climbed to $1,825.07 after Bernstein lifted its target from $1,971 to $2,623, also maintaining its buy call, on expectations that AI-driven expansion of both advanced logic and memory capacity keeps driving sales higher. INTL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP (IBM | ???3.45%) picked up a smaller but still solid gain in the same tape.
The stranger story belongs to DELL TECHNOLOGIES -C (DELL | ???4.43%), which rose after President Trump told reporters at a White House press conference that consumers "should go buy a Dell computer." Trump has talked up the company repeatedly during his second term and disclosed a $5.1 million purchase of Dell shares in the first quarter.
I'll leave the political commentary to someone else, but a sitting president publicly recommending a specific consumer product is not something I've had to write about in a market column before, and the stock traded accordingly.
Bitcoin Miners Cash In While a Major Holder Cashes Out
Bitcoin coin in a green pot surrounded by crypto coins on a wooden table - Pexels.com
STRATEGY INC (MSTR | ???0.00%) closed unchanged after a volatile session, following disclosure that it sold 3,588 bitcoin between June 29 and July 5, a notable move from the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin itself rose about 1% to roughly $63,600 despite that sale, with ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC - A (HOOD | ???4.28%) and COINBASE GLOBAL INC -CLASS A (COIN | ???2.05%) both catching a bid among crypto-adjacent names.
The more interesting story sits with TERAWULF INC (WULF | ???4.86%), which closed sharply higher after the bitcoin miner and data-center operator announced a twenty-year lease agreement with AI company Anthropic, expected to generate roughly $19 billion in contracted revenue over the initial term.
That's the kind of number that reframes what a "bitcoin miner" even is at this point, most of these operators are quietly turning into AI infrastructure landlords, and the market is starting to price them that way.
SPACE EXPLORATION TECHN-CL A (SPCX | ???0.98%) slipped slightly ahead of its addition to the Nasdaq-100 index Tuesday.
Auto Parts Get Hit While EV Makers Rally
Auto-parts retailers had a rough session, with O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC (ORLY | ???6.66%) and AUTOZONE INC (AZO | ???6.38%) both dropping sharply.
Electric-vehicle makers moved the opposite direction, with LUCID GROUP INC (LCID | ???9.54%) and RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INC-A (RIVN | ???8.11%) both posting strong gains. I wouldn't read too much into a single day's divergence between these two corners of the auto trade, but it's worth keeping on the radar heading into earnings season, since it hints at money rotating within the sector rather than leaving it altogether.
Bottom Line
Monday told a fairly coherent story once you strip away the noise: chip stocks got a reprieve, not a resolution, and the Dow's fresh milestone sat next to plenty of reasons for caution, a still-struggling Microsoft, a Fed decision that hasn't been made yet, and an oil market quietly shifting from shortage fears to oversupply concerns.
I'd treat the semiconductor bounce as tentative until Samsung and SK Hynix give the market something more concrete to react to later this week. Until then, enjoy the record close, but keep half an eye on the exits.
ChartMill Market Desk - Kristoff
With regard to the stocks discussed in the article above; the author owns individual shares in Nvidia.
This daily update is prepared by ChartMill for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Read full article here »
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Chips Get Their Confidence Back, the Dow Cracks 53,000, and Trump Moonlights as a Dell Salesman
Give the market a week to panic about chip valuations, and it'll spend the next one buying the dip right back.
That's more or less what happened Monday: the same semiconductor names that got hammered last week came roaring back, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 53,000 for the first time in its history, and Microsoft still can't catch a break no matter how much it cuts.
If you stepped away for the long weekend, here's what you missed on the way back in.
The Rundown
The Chip Trade Gets Its Confidence Back
Monday was a collective exhale for semiconductors.
Memory maker MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC (MU | ???0.94%) had shed roughly 15% over the prior week, an ugly pullback that followed a genuinely stellar twelve months, and it only managed a modest gain on the rebound day.
The rest of the group had more to say: WESTERN DIGITAL CORP (WDC | ???7.14%), NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV (NXPI | ???2.62%), MARVELL TECHNOLOGY INC (MRVL | ???1.62%) and MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC (MCHP | ???3.49%) all posted gains between roughly 3% and 7%, while NVIDIA CORP (NVDA | ???0.37%) edged higher too.
I read last week's selloff as a legitimate question finally getting asked out loud: is the AI buildout generating enough return to justify the capital going into it, or has the enthusiasm simply outrun the math? Monday's bounce doesn't answer that question. It just says the market isn't ready to answer it in the negative yet.
The real tell will be how the hyperscalers' own spending plans hold up.
AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN | ???0.61%), MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT | ???0.96%) and ALPHABET INC-CL A (GOOGL | ???1.82%) are the names to watch here, and if their capital budgets stay intact, that should reassure investors that AI infrastructure demand has real staying power.
If the hyperscalers get cautious instead, expect the conversation to snap right back to valuations, financing needs, and concentration risk in the chip trade.
Microsoft's Bad Year Gets a Little Worse
Close-up of an Xbox Series console and controller with dynamic lighting, showcasing modern gaming technology - Pexels.com
MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT | ???0.96%) confirmed roughly 6,400 job cuts, about 2% of its workforce, with the Xbox gaming division taking an outsized share of the reduction. The stock is down 19% year-to-date, which makes it the worst performer among the mega-cap tech names in 2026, and Monday's announcement did nothing to change that trajectory: shares slipped another 0.96% on the news.
The problem isn't the layoffs themselves. It's what they signal.
Investors are increasingly worried that generative AI is eating into demand for classic enterprise software at the same time Microsoft's own AI products haven't managed to convince anyone they're the clear winner. Cutting headcount reads less like discipline and more like an admission that growth isn't where it needs to be.
The Dow Crosses 53,000, Even If the Rest of the Week Looks Complicated
A simple blue directional traffic sign with white arrow over a white wall background, symbolizing direction or movement - Pexels.com
The headline number is clean: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI | ???0.29%) closed at 53,055.91, its first finish above 53,000 ever, while the S&P 500 (SPX | ???0.72%) and Nasdaq Composite (COMPX | ???1.12%) both rallied harder as tech led the way.
Some of that tech optimism had a real catalyst behind it: Taiwan's Foxconn, the world's largest electronics contract manufacturer, reported a 40% jump in second-quarter revenue, which the market read as fresh evidence that AI-driven demand hasn't cooled off. That optimism gets tested fast. Samsung reports preliminary second-quarter results Tuesday, with analysts expecting profit to jump roughly eighteenfold year-over-year, and SK Hynix follows later in the week with an ADR listing aiming to raise upward of $28 billion.
Wednesday brings the minutes from the Federal Reserve's first meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh, and I expect investors to comb through them for anything resembling forward guidance. CME FedWatch data still shows a majority leaning toward a possible rate move as early as September, so the minutes matter more than usual this cycle.
Domestic data gave a mixed read heading into that meeting: S&P Global's services survey showed growth picking up, while ISM's version showed a slight pullback, which tells me the service economy is muddling through rather than accelerating cleanly in either direction.
Elsewhere, oil barely moved after OPEC+ agreed Sunday to raise output for a fifth consecutive month, an increase of roughly 188,000 barrels a day starting in August, as what looked like a supply shock earlier this year now threatens to become a glut. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed following the U.S.-Iran talks, though insurance premiums on that route remain well above pre-war levels. The euro ticked up against the dollar to 1.1440, and the 10-year Treasury yield barely budged at 4.47%.
Upgrades and an Unusual Endorsement
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES (AMD | ???6.61%) had the best day in the group after Goldman Sachs raised its price target and reiterated a buy rating, betting on a strong quarterly report and guidance with no clear end in sight to AI-driven chip demand.
ASML HOLDING NV-NY REG SHS (ASML | ???3.15%) climbed to $1,825.07 after Bernstein lifted its target from $1,971 to $2,623, also maintaining its buy call, on expectations that AI-driven expansion of both advanced logic and memory capacity keeps driving sales higher. INTL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP (IBM | ???3.45%) picked up a smaller but still solid gain in the same tape.
The stranger story belongs to DELL TECHNOLOGIES -C (DELL | ???4.43%), which rose after President Trump told reporters at a White House press conference that consumers "should go buy a Dell computer." Trump has talked up the company repeatedly during his second term and disclosed a $5.1 million purchase of Dell shares in the first quarter.
I'll leave the political commentary to someone else, but a sitting president publicly recommending a specific consumer product is not something I've had to write about in a market column before, and the stock traded accordingly.
Bitcoin Miners Cash In While a Major Holder Cashes Out
Bitcoin coin in a green pot surrounded by crypto coins on a wooden table - Pexels.com
STRATEGY INC (MSTR | ???0.00%) closed unchanged after a volatile session, following disclosure that it sold 3,588 bitcoin between June 29 and July 5, a notable move from the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin itself rose about 1% to roughly $63,600 despite that sale, with ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC - A (HOOD | ???4.28%) and COINBASE GLOBAL INC -CLASS A (COIN | ???2.05%) both catching a bid among crypto-adjacent names.
The more interesting story sits with TERAWULF INC (WULF | ???4.86%), which closed sharply higher after the bitcoin miner and data-center operator announced a twenty-year lease agreement with AI company Anthropic, expected to generate roughly $19 billion in contracted revenue over the initial term.
That's the kind of number that reframes what a "bitcoin miner" even is at this point, most of these operators are quietly turning into AI infrastructure landlords, and the market is starting to price them that way.
SPACE EXPLORATION TECHN-CL A (SPCX | ???0.98%) slipped slightly ahead of its addition to the Nasdaq-100 index Tuesday.
Auto Parts Get Hit While EV Makers Rally
Auto-parts retailers had a rough session, with O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC (ORLY | ???6.66%) and AUTOZONE INC (AZO | ???6.38%) both dropping sharply.
Electric-vehicle makers moved the opposite direction, with LUCID GROUP INC (LCID | ???9.54%) and RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INC-A (RIVN | ???8.11%) both posting strong gains. I wouldn't read too much into a single day's divergence between these two corners of the auto trade, but it's worth keeping on the radar heading into earnings season, since it hints at money rotating within the sector rather than leaving it altogether.
Bottom Line
Monday told a fairly coherent story once you strip away the noise: chip stocks got a reprieve, not a resolution, and the Dow's fresh milestone sat next to plenty of reasons for caution, a still-struggling Microsoft, a Fed decision that hasn't been made yet, and an oil market quietly shifting from shortage fears to oversupply concerns.
I'd treat the semiconductor bounce as tentative until Samsung and SK Hynix give the market something more concrete to react to later this week. Until then, enjoy the record close, but keep half an eye on the exits.
ChartMill Market Desk - Kristoff
With regard to the stocks discussed in the article above; the author owns individual shares in Nvidia.
This daily update is prepared by ChartMill for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Read full article here »