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Southwest Airlines shares fall as oil jumps and investors brace for earnings

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is down 3.8% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The most likely driver appears to be a mix of sector pressure and earnings caution rather than a fresh company-specific headline. Southwest heads into its July 23 second-quarter report after previously guiding to a relatively wide adjusted EPS range and warning that fuel and unit-cost pressures were running elevated, while crude oil prices surged this week.

Details:

  • Southwest’s investor relations calendar shows the company is scheduled to discuss second-quarter 2026 financial results on July 23, which can make airline stocks more sensitive to profit-taking and estimate risk ahead of the report.
  • In its first-quarter release, Southwest guided for second-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.35 to $0.65 and expected second-quarter CASM-X to rise 3.5% to 4.0% year over year, signaling that cost pressures were still an important watchpoint.
  • That same quarterly update noted first-quarter fuel costs came in above prior expectations, and rising oil prices are typically a negative for airline sentiment because fuel is a major expense line.
  • Broader market coverage on July 17 showed crude prices moving sharply higher amid Middle East tensions, which likely added pressure across travel names including Southwest.
  • Sources:

    Southwest Airlines Investor Relations, SEC, Associated Press

    Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

    $LUV Insider Trading Activity

    LUV Insider Trades

    $LUV insiders have traded $LUV stock on the open market 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

    Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $LUV stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

    • LISA M ATHERTON sold 118 shares for an estimated $4,478

    To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API insider transaction endpoint.

    $LUV Hedge Fund Activity

    We have seen 388 institutional investors add shares of $LUV stock to their portfolio, and 352 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

    Here are some of the largest recent moves:

    • ELLIOTT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT L.P. removed 20,782,500 shares (-40.6%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $780,798,525
    • GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC removed 13,105,588 shares (-78.8%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $492,376,941
    • FMR LLC added 6,027,103 shares (+161.3%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $226,438,259
    • QUBE RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES LTD added 5,159,735 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $193,851,243
    • UBS GROUP AG removed 4,921,689 shares (-65.9%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $184,907,855
    • FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC added 4,185,878 shares (+10.4%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $157,263,436
    • NOMURA HOLDINGS INC removed 3,851,665 shares (-98.0%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $144,707,054

    To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

    $LUV Government Contracts

    We have seen $102,419 of award payments to $LUV over the last year.

    Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

    To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard. You can access data on government contracts through the Quiver Quantitative API government contracts endpoint.

    $LUV Congressional Stock Trading

    Members of Congress have traded $LUV stock 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

    Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $LUV stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

    To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard. You can access data on congressional stock trades through the Quiver Quantitative API Congress trades endpoint.

    $LUV Analyst Ratings

    Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $LUV in the last several months. We have seen 2 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 1 firms issue sell ratings.

    Here are some recent analyst ratings:

    • Morgan Stanley issued a "Overweight" rating on 01/30/2026
    • B of A Securities issued a "Underperform" rating on 01/30/2026
    • BMO Capital issued a "Outperform" rating on 01/30/2026

    To track analyst ratings and price targets for $LUV, check out Quiver Quantitative's $LUV forecast page.

    $LUV Price Targets

    Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $LUV recently. We have seen 16 analysts offer price targets for $LUV in the last 6 months, with a median target of $52.5.

    Here are some recent targets:

    • Christopher Stathoulopoulos from Susquehanna set a target price of $55.0 on 07/07/2026
    • Savanthi Syth from Raymond James set a target price of $60.0 on 07/06/2026
    • Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $65.0 on 07/06/2026
    • Michael Goldie from BMO Capital set a target price of $58.5 on 07/02/2026
    • Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs set a target price of $35.0 on 07/02/2026
    • Tom Fitzgerald from TD Cowen set a target price of $53.0 on 07/02/2026
    • Andrew Didora from B of A Securities set a target price of $45.0 on 07/01/2026

    This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.

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